The US Treasury will announce the size of bond issuance from May to July this week.Pacman40thanniversaryThe only suspense may be the issuance of US inflation protected Treasuries (TIPS).

According to the latest quarterly statement from the US Treasury on January 31st, TIPS is still affected by "incremental growth", while conventional bond issuance is expected to remain stable after growth begins in August 2023. The U.S. Treasury Department will announce its issuance plans for the quarter at 8:30 Washington time on Wednesday.

Bond traders expect a total of $125 billion in three-year, 10-year and 30-year bond issuance next week, unchanged from comparable recent issuance. Although the size of these offerings will only be formally determined on Wednesday, quarterly guidelines are usually issued.

Without exception, traders expect the Treasury to keep the size of seven conventional fixed-income bonds unchanged over the next three months. The borrowing valuation for the second quarter released by the Ministry of Finance on Monday was revised upward, reflectingPacman40thanniversaryThe reduction in cash receipts suggests that the supply of Treasuries with maturities of one year or less will shrink less than expected during the period.

For TIPS, the release schedule includes a 10-year renewal in May, a 5-year renewal in June, and a 10-year new issue in July. The sequel is expected to follow the previous pattern, and the only uncertainty is expected to be a new issue in July.

More than half of the 23 primary dealers in Treasuries expect TIPS issuance to rise to $19 billion in July, while the rest expect it to remain at $18 billion. ASL Capital Markets does not provide predictions.

Citigroup strategists prefer to expect issuance to rise to $19 billion to maintain TIPS's share of total issuance, "especially after a significant increase in nominal bonds over the past year". Barclays strategists expect a new $18 billion 10-year TIPS and a five-year TIPS "best suited to absorb additional supply".